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Economy

ECB, EBA Release Baseline and Adverse Scenarios for Stress Tests

February 1, 2023

ATHENS – The Greek economy is projected to grow by 1.5% this year, 3% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025, under the baseline scenario that European Central Bank and the European Banking Authority (EBA) will use for this year’s stress tests on 99 credit institutions of the Eurozone.

Under the adverse scenario, the Greek economy is projected to shrink by 1.9% this year and by 4.5% in 2024, rebounding to 0.9% in 2025.

Greek unemployment is projected to ease from 11.5% this year to 10.4% in 2024 and 9.4% in 2025 (baseline scenario), while under the adverse scenario the unemployment rate is projected to be 12.7% this year, 16.1% in 2024 and 17.3% in 2025.

Real estate prices are projected to rise by 4.7% in 2023, rising by 3.4% in 2024 and 3% in 2025, while under the adverse scenario, prices are projected to fall by 2.1% this year, dropping by 7% in 2024 and rising by 2.9% in 2025.

The inflation rate is projected to be 5.8% this year, 3.6% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025 (baseline scenario), and 8.3%, 4.6% and 3.2%, respectively under the adverse scenario.

EBA plans to release the results of the stress tests for each individual bank by the end of July 2023. The results will shed light on the impact of the adverse scenario on banks’ resilience. This year’s stress test will use for the first time parameters on net revenue from commissions.

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