The first anniversary – if we can call it that – of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine does not lend itself to celebration and grandstanding.
On the contrary, it is evidence of the tragic failure of the international community to resolve disputes peacefully, and indeed within Europe.
On this ‘dark anniversary’ the agonizing question is all the more pressing: How will this war end? Will it end in a traditional way, such as, for example, by Russian annexing a percentage of Ukraine’s territory – a possible development anyway – or will it go on too long, increasing the likelihood that it will lead the world into unimaginable misadventures?
And this, that is, the spread of the conflict, seems to depend on a single factor: on China and its position vis-à-vis Russia.
In other words, will China come to the aid of Russia, depleted of weapons and ammunition, or will it just pay lip service and let her become so weakened that Russia ends up becoming a state without a big role on the international chessboard?
The prospects for peace in the world depend on this answer.
In this context, the Wall Street Journal had an exclusive story with the following report:
“The Biden administration is considering releasing intelligence it believes shows that China is weighing whether to supply weapons to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, U.S. officials said.”
If, as it clearly appears, America is concerned that China will arm Russia, then we will have a war front in which the two most powerful states in the world, America and China, are fighting a proxy war, and the third, Russia, is directly involved.
And if that happens, if China arms Russia, as is evident from American concern and the recent visit of the top Chinese diplomat to Moscow, how far away can the active involvement of both America and China in the war be? And then what will happen?
So, as we mark one year since Russia’s unacceptable invasion of Ukraine, let us not celebrate. Let us not resort to grand words and boasts.
Rather, we must strongly condemn Russia for its unacceptable war and its effort to dismember a sovereign state, but at the same time, let us speed up the search for a solution as much as possible.
This war must end before the oil which is constantly being thrown on the fire spreads, covers, and burns our entire planet.