ATHENS – Greece’s pivotal May 21 elections likely won’t produce a government, a survey has shown, with the political landscape so fractured and so many parties entering Parliament the first-place finisher won’t have a majority.

That would squash Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ hope of returning to power outright as he wants, and even the prospect of coalitions is being muddied by the volatility of a vote skewed by anger over the train tragedy that killed 57 people although it’s fading from headlines.

But the biggest factor is seen being the 11.5 percent of undecided voters found in a survey by Pulse for SKAI TV even though Mitsotakis’ New Democracy’s lead grew over the major opposition SYRIZA.

The Conservatives hold an edge of 5 percent – up from 2.9 percent in a previous poll – as the Premier has been trying to move voters away from the memories of the disaster, his party leading SYRIZA by 31-26 percent.

Mitsotakis and SYRIZA leader Alexis Tsipras, hoping to avenge a July, 2019 snap poll beating, are vying for those key undecideds and the number is 16.5 percent when blank and spoiled votes and abstentions are added in.

In third place is the resurging PASOK-KINAL Movement for Change center-left at 10 percent, a level that wouldn’t bring enough seats in Parliament for a ruling party government led by New Democracy if Mitsotakis lures the party.

Tsipras has predicted an outright first-round knockout but the numbers show that’s fancy and that he would have difficulty even with partners if he takes first place in a first – or subsequent ballots.

Ironically, he has compounded the dilemma because his party, in its waning days before the 2019 beating, passed a law taking away a 50-seat bonus in the 300-member Parliament for a first-place finisher.

That means neither New Democracy nor SYRIZA could form a single-party government given the current levels of support, which means a second election, likely in July, with an interim government in place.

The second round would operate under another change in electoral laws passed by New Democracy that provides a bonus of 20-50 seats in Parliament based on a percentage of the vote the winner gets.

But the current scenario shows that even that might not be enough for the winner of the second round to form a government with a partner or grand coalition of three or more parties, requiring a third election.

That’s because four other parties – including the new Ellines (Greeks) ultra far-right party of Ilias Kasidiaris, a jailed former member of Golden Dawn, is on a path to get 3.5 percent, more than the 3 percent threshold needed to enter Parliament.

In fourth in the survey – in their usual place for decades – is the KKE Communists with 6.5 percent, followed by the  nationalist Greek Solution and radical leftist MeRA 25 with 4 percent each, stuck there.

The survey showed that the first round would give New Democracy 115 seats, 97 for SYRIZA, 37 for PASOK and 21 each for Greek Solution and MeRA25, leaving the results in disarray and no government seen likely.

Kasidiaris, moving to get around a ban on his party getting into Parliament, is said to thinking of naming former prosecutor Anastasios (Tasos) Kanellopoulos as its leader, although it wasn’t indicated if Kasidiaris would call the shots from jail.

Kanellopoulos told Open TV that, “It is indeed true. This change has been initiated. Certain statutory procedures need to be followed, some modifications need to be made, and then, after I submit the statutes to the competent prosecutor of the Supreme Court, I will be the President.”

In February, the Greek Parliament approved an amendment to prevent extremist parties from taking part in elections, although SYRIZA disapproved, feeling it was too broad an interpretation.

Kanellopoulos had founded his own political faction in February 2022, named Ean (Greek for “If”), with the slogan “the country needs a prosecutor,” and could find himself in Parliament if Kasidiaris is successful in getting around the ban.