The Re-Election of Trump Is Difficult, but Not Impossible

The U.S. election campaign began in earnest on Monday night with the Democratic National Convention, a convention unlike any other held in history.

But we live in the time of the coronavirus, a pandemic that has brought about many changes in our lives.

So there are less than three months until the November elections, a very long time – politically – during which much can change.

However, the Wall Street Journal published a poll, according to which if the elections were held today, Biden would be elected with 50% of the vote compared to 41% for Trump.

In other words, the percentages remain stable, with Biden leading by about 9-11% most months of this year.

Does this mean that the elections are over? That the result is predetermined? Of course not. As we said, a lot can happen. But, on the other hand, it is difficult to close this gap.

For a long time, Biden's negative percentages were higher than his positives, as were Trump's.

Recently, only Biden's positive percentages have increased by 5% to 39%.

The problem with Biden is that he does not excite his supporters, which can be improved to some extent by the selection of Kamala Harris as the vice-presidential candidate.

Fifty-eight percent of those who vote for Biden do so out of opposition to Trump rather than support for him.

On the contrary, three quarters of those who support Trump do so because they are excited about him, rather than in opposition to Biden.

In any case, in order for Trump to be re-elected, he must significantly improve his percentages.

And that is difficult. And it is difficult because as President for four years he is vulnerable to the attacks of his opponent.

As one analyst (Horwitt) put it, "on the one hand, Biden seems to be in the position that Trump was in 2016, when they voted against his opponent (Hillary Clinton) rather than in his favor."

As Trump himself recently stated, if the coronavirus epidemic had not occurred, even George Washington could not have defeated him.

I'm not sure about that. But it is certain that he would be in a much better position.

But the double blow of the coronavirus and the great economic crisis make his re-election quite difficult. Maybe, possibly impossible.

But in politics, as with everything, it is not over until the last vote is counted.


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