ATHENS – New Democracy maintains a commanding 18% lead over major opposition party SYRIZA following the first round of elections on May 21. However, the potential for another government deadlock looms large, as New Democracy would require sufficient votes to secure bonus seats in Parliament for a majority and single-party rule, a condition former Premier Kyriakos Mitsotakis vehemently desires, ruling out any possibility of a coalition.

Previously, an amendment introduced by the former government allowed for a sliding scale of up to 50 seats in the 300-member parliament. However, SYRIZA removed this provision during their tenure before being ousted in snap elections held in July 2019.

The prospects of an outright victory for New Democracy could be hindered if seven parties manage to garner enough votes to secure parliamentary representation, diverting support from New Democracy, SYRIZA, and the third-place PASOK-KINAL party.

In the previous parliament, six parties were represented. However, MeRA25, led by former SYRIZA finance chief Yanis Varoufakis, was eliminated in the first round. Current surveys indicate that MeRA25 is tracking at a mere 2.1%, falling short of the 3% threshold required for parliamentary entry.

According to a recent survey conducted by MBR for Open TV, New Democracy maintains a lead of 36.3% to SYRIZA’s 17.6%, with the PASOK Socialists at 10% and the KKE Communists at 6.2%.

Two other parties have secured enough support to enter parliament: Sailing for Freedom at 4.2%, alongside the ultra-religious group Nike, and Greek Solution making a comeback at 3.9%.

However, a significant factor remains: the undecided vote stands at 11.9%, despite this being the second round of elections and the intentions of voters having been revealed in the first round. Moreover, the upcoming election competes with the summer season, vacations, and potential apathy following the low turnout in the initial round.

If Mitsotakis secures victory without the necessary vote share to govern independently, he will be faced with a choice between forming a partnership, with PASOK leader Nikos Androulakis ruling out collaboration, or calling for a third election later in the summer.