ATHENS – Already on track for a second consecutive record year, Greece’s tourism sector is thriving so much that it’s exceeding revenue estimates, despite initial reports suggesting a decline in earnings even as tourist arrivals soar.

Early analysis indicated that while more tourists were visiting—likely exceeding 33 million in 2024, more than three times the country’s population—they were spending less compared to the record-breaking year of 2023.

The Bank of Greece’s July data showed a 5.4% drop in spending year-on-year, even though arrivals increased by 4.1%. The decline was attributed to various factors, primarily the rise of short-term rentals.

The bank now suggests that its border survey might have underestimated the true impact of tourism spending, particularly by visitors using short-term rental platforms like Airbnb. The expenditure of these tourists may have been miscalculated, the bank said.

The report also highlighted challenges in measuring seasonality, with a large number of tourists staying for shorter durations, potentially leading to incomplete spending data. However, no detailed explanation was provided on how this oversight occurred.

These factors, among others, led the bank to conclude that there was an anomaly, particularly in the booming short-term rental market. Tourists staying in these rentals may underreport their spending on items such as food, the bank noted. Meanwhile, business turnover—indicating actual spending—showed a significant rise.

In July, turnover in accommodations increased by 5.2%, and catering services by 6.5%, a trend that couldn’t be solely attributed to increased spending by Greeks, the report noted. This offset any perceived drop in spending by foreign visitors.

Food service prices were also up by 6.6% year-on-year in July, with accommodation prices rising 12.4% and transport services by 14.4%, supporting the idea that actual revenues were likely underestimated.

“At constant prices, tourism spending appears down 14.5% in July, which is inconsistent with both domestic and international trends,” the bank said. Hotel occupancy remained steady at 82.8% in July, compared to 82.7% in 2023.

Additionally, there is a discrepancy between the expenses tourists report in their home countries and those declared in Greece. “We estimate that actual final tourist expenditure is likely to exceed official records by around €1 billion in 2024,” the bank’s revised analysis concluded.