NEW YORK – Long Island, the suburban expanse just east of New York City, home to some 3 million people, could play a pivotal role in determining which party controls Congress. With Democrats just a few seats shy of winning a majority in the U.S. House, the island—just a train ride away from liberal Manhattan—has improbably become the stage for some of this year’s most hotly contested races.

Despite being part of deep blue New York, Long Island has recently become an unexpected stronghold for Republicans. The issues that have swayed Long Island voters to the right in recent elections—crime, immigration, and the economy—are the same issues that could energize voters in suburban battlegrounds across the country this November. The decision by Democrats to replace President Joe Biden with Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket last month has added another unpredictable variable to down-ballot races nationwide, leaving both parties scrambling to assess the impact.

Republicans on Long Island have capitalized on suburban backlash against progressive policies in New York City, portraying themselves as a bulwark against liberal excesses spilling over into the island. This strategy has so far paid off, with Long Island Republicans dominating local races in Nassau and Suffolk counties and holding all but one of the island’s congressional seats. While New York as a whole may reliably vote Democratic, the political landscape on Long Island is more nuanced.

Republicans scored some of their most significant victories on Long Island two years ago, as the city grappled with a pandemic-era surge in violent crime. Suburban voters were inundated with alarming headlines and TV commentary depicting a nearby urban hellscape. Republicans swept all four of the island’s congressional seats, and a Long Island Republican, former U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin, nearly pulled off a major upset in the governor’s race—a position the GOP hasn’t held in years.

However, Democrats now see Long Island as a prime opportunity to reclaim congressional seats in their bid to retake the House majority. The party is buoyed by an encouraging win in a recent special election for the seat left vacant by the expulsion of George Santos from Congress. Democrat Tom Suozzi, running as a centrist, defeated a Republican county lawmaker.